Childcare sufficiency report 2023

Lincolnshire is located in the East Midlands and is the fourth largest county in England.  The county has seven districts:

• Boston
• East Lindsey
• Lincoln City
• North Kesteven
• South Holland
• South Kesteven
• West Lindsey

It has a diverse geography comprising large rural and agricultural areas, urban areas and market towns. It also has a large eastern coastline which hosts a thriving tourism industry.

Population

According to mid-2021 census figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of Lincolnshire was 769,474. Based on recent growth rates the current 2023 population of Lincolnshire is estimated to be 778,000. In the ten years prior to 2021 census, the population grew by 50,290 (6.5%), inline with the national population increase of 6.3%.  The ONS forecast the population of Lincolnshire to be 791,978 by 2025 and 812,161 by 2030. This represents a further 4.4% increase, but is slowing compared to 2021 census data.

Children aged 0 to 4-years represent 4.7% of the 2021 census population (36,566) which was 0.7% below national average. In contrast to the population growth within Lincolnshire, there has been a decline in birth rates since the last census from 7,938 births in 2011, to 6,559 births in 2021.  This is forecasted to continue to decline. This will in turn reduce the percentage of the population who are under 4-years of age in the next two years.  From known GP registered data in May 2023 there were a total of 36,100 children from 0 to 4 years residing in Lincolnshire.  This is 4.6% percent of estimate population.

We extract population data to support our sufficiency assessment from NHS data (Systm1). This includes children registered with doctors in Lincolnshire.  Whilst there may be some variation to doctor registrations, this data is reliable for sufficiency assessing.  

Housing

The National Planning Policy Framework requires local planning authorities to identify a rolling  five year supply of deliverable housing across the period.    

In Lincolnshire, there are ambitious plans to deliver new houses across the county by 2031. Planned housing growth does not necessarily equate to increased demand for childcare. Average household size and population demographics will impact on the size and nature of new housing developments, and potential demand for childcare. It will depend on the mix of population, and is considered alongside Lincolnshire’s birth rates, which are falling.

The following table shows the current planned housing developments for Lincolnshire and the progress made so far.

DfE guidance ‘Securing developer contributions for education August 2023’ references early years as follows:

Pupil yield evidence by education type and phase

While many early years settings fall within the private, voluntary, and independent (PVI) sector, local authorities have a duty to ensure early years childcare provision within the terms set out in the Childcare Acts 2006 and 2016. DfE has scaled up state-funded early years places since 2010. This includes the introduction of funding for eligible 2-year-olds and the 30 hours funded childcare offer for 3 to 4-year-olds. Expanded early years entitlements for children aged nine months to three years old will be available from 2024.

The take-up of funded childcare entitlements is high, increasing the demand for early years provision. All new primary schools are now expected to include a nursery.  Developer contributions have a role to play in helping to fund additional early years places for children aged 0 to 4 where these are required due to housing growth, whether these are attached to schools or delivered as separate settings.

The positive news is that early years is cited in the above guidance. The guidance gives reference to the new reforms, including the provision for 0 to 4 years in any new development. This will enable us to adapt plans and requests for funding in future.