Safer Lincolnshire Partnership strategy 2025 to 2028

Needs assessment and gap analysis

An extensive strategic needs assessment (SNA) has been undertaken to inform the community safety strategy for Lincolnshire, including analysis of:

  • demand
  • prevalence
  • performance data

It also incorporates findings from stakeholder engagement with partners in the county and community engagement through questionnaires and surveys. Furthermore, the needs assessment provided:

  • an overview of current trends in relation to crime and disorder in Lincolnshire
  • contextual information to assist with understanding possible drivers for changes in trends and themes

The findings of the strategic assessment underpin this strategy and form the basis for action over the next three years.

Lincolnshire is a relatively safe county to live and work in. The crime rates overall are below the national average at 70.7 crimes per 1,000 population. This is compared to 87.9 crimes per 1,000 population nationally. Out of 42 police force areas, Lincolnshire has the twelfth lowest crime rate in England and Wales. Source Crime in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.

In 2023 to 2024 Lincolnshire saw falls in acquisitive crimes. This includes burglary and vehicle theft. There has been a general decline in the number of crimes involving young adults as both victims and as suspects or offenders.

This is the local needs profile as at December 2024.

Overarching rates of crime, disorder and reoffending

Reoffending rates are beginning to rise again after falling over the pandemic. More than 1 in 4 proven offenders commit at least one reoffence within a year (26%).

When offenders reoffend in Lincolnshire, they do so more prolifically when compared to the national average (4.6 reoffences in 12 months compared to 3.9 reoffences nationally).

Shop theft, hate crime, non- domestic harassment and sexual offences have all risen since the pandemic.

Since the pandemic, shop theft has increased by 61.7%.

Anti-social behaviour data has identified the high and varied demands on services from the most vulnerable anti-social behaviour victims.

Localities and cohorts of concern

West Lindsey has the highest binary reoffending rate* in the country (39.9%) and the 20th highest frequency rate (5.2 reoffences). A 'binary offending rate' refers to a reoffending statistic that focuses on whether an individual reoffends at all, rather than the frequency or severity of reoffences.

The risk of becoming a victim or perpetrator of crime and ASB is greater in Skegness and Gainsborough than in other towns.

Six of Lincolnshire’s towns fall within the top 25% highest crime and ASB rates nationally:

  • Skegness
  • Gainsborough
  • Lincoln
  • Boston
  • Grantham
  • Sleaford

Sleaford is the only town in Lincolnshire where crime is higher than it was both pre pandemic and from the start of the 2022 to 2025 strategy.

Almost all social risk factors for future involvement in serious violence are above the Lincolnshire average in both Skegness and Gainsborough. In many cases the rates in these towns are the highest in Lincolnshire.

A small cohort of 37 individuals have been involved in over 1,600 police incidents. These did not just include the full range of anti-social behaviours, but also:

  • violent crimes
  • sexual offences
  • domestic abuse
  • drug offences
  • concern for welfare
  • missing persons

Two of the top 10 highest crime and ASB rates for built up areas with a population of 10,000 residents or more in England and Wales can be found in Lincolnshire:

  • Skegness (second)
  • Gainsborough (eighth)

The more times a person is involved in crime and ASB, the greater the chance that they will be involved in at least one offence as a victim and as a suspect or offender. Those with the highest volume of contacts are likely to present as both victims and offenders.

Contextual findings

  • There is a very strong positive correlation between unemployment claimant levels and crime levels in Lincolnshire among the 16 to 64-year-old resident population.
  • The cost of living has increased by 20%. This appears to have had an impact on the level of shop theft.
  • Following the national trend, the proportion of residents reporting a long-term mental health condition in Lincolnshire is rising (from 1 in 10 in 2018, to 1 in 8 in 2023). The rise since 2018 is statistically significant.
  • The suicide rate in Lincolnshire is high and ranks second highest among all local authorities in England and Wales.
  • The combined deaths from alcohol, drug misuse and suicide in Lincolnshire have increased by 40% in Lincolnshire between 2019 and 2022. This is higher than the national trend, where a 16% increase has been observed over the same time.
  • Nearly 1 in 4 secondary school age children reported at least one online contact from a stranger that made them feel uncomfortable in the last year.
  • Approximately 40% of secondary school age children reported viewing or being sent harmful content in the last year. Those who viewed such content were likely to have done so multiple times.
  • The number of households owed a homeless prevention or relief duty in Lincolnshire has now risen above pre-pandemic levels. The rate of households owed a duty is particularly high in Lincoln, where it is 12th highest in England out of 296 authorities (25.4 households per 1,000 compared with 13.4 per 1,000 nationally).

Public concerns and perception

The fear of crime in Lincolnshire has returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, fear of crime in Lincolnshire is still relatively low. On a score of 1 to 10 where 10 is most fearful, the average score in 2023 is 4.31.

Public confidence in a range of public services is deteriorating, while tax rates increase. This raises raising increasing legitimacy concerns.

It is clear to see that the SNA has highlighted specific localities and cohorts of individuals within the county that will benefit from a targeted and bespoke approach. This will address community safety concerns with a focus on prevention.

The SNA provided contextual information to assist with understanding:

  • possible drivers for changes in trends
  • potential factors related to crime and disorder in Lincolnshire

Thematic areas that were identified included:

  • emotional well-being
  • unemployment
  • substance misuse
  • deprivation and the cost of living
  • online harms

When developing our approach for 2025 to 2028 the deliverables must take account of these contextual findings in relation to:

  • complexity
  • need
  • vulnerability

Considering findings noted in the SNA, we need to ensure that we are engaging and communicating effectively with Lincolnshire communities. This will be essential to ensure that we are working with the public to:

  • respond to their concerns
  • signpost communities to reporting mechanisms
  • highlight positive activity that is taking place across the county

Stakeholder engagement and communication will be essential to inform our model of delivery and approach for 2025 to 2028.

The SLP has decided to take a different approach to better respond to the concerns identified. This is following extensive and robust strategic consideration of the findings from the SNA and subsequent gap analysis.